(Early Warning) The Collapse of Indonesia; Target "Foreign" The Elections of 2014 And 2019, the War of 2020

Author: Muhammad Shah Irsan, Lecturer and Independent Consultant, Founder of Strategic Studies Center, Co-Partner service company field of security and intelligence. Background The author tries to discuss the issues widened slightly out of bounds Indonesia; when lately National issues; ELECTION 2014, Corruption, Scandal, which is often talked about by many, it helps us open up horizons to regional and international issues; as well as refreshment and new understandings related to major issues that should be of concern to us.

The dynamics of the international world of the most widely discussed today is the shift of US hegemony; particularly in the Asia-Pacific are slowly eroded by the rapid growth in China. United States certainly do not want a inequality of influence; because with the loss of hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region will bring huge losses impact on all aspects of the life of the United States. On the other hand, China, planned or not, they have been transformed into a new great power to bring positive and negative impacts; so that growth in China is the coin that has two (2) side; threats and opportunities. Indonesia, geographically has tremendous advantages in the Asia-Pacific region; mainly because the area crossing international trade is the path South China Sea waters of the busiest and the Strait of Malacca is the territory of Indonesia, would it be a blessing for Indonesia, but in the same time it is a curse because of the strategic location of this, Indonesia has become a magnet the "foreign "to stick" influence and control ".

The history of "Foreigner" in Indonesia

Back view span the history of Indonesia is associated with the "foreign"; we can trace even the start of the pre- colonial era, the era of the Indonesian archipelago or commonplace also called an area that consists of a collection of kingdoms scattered in several areas of the main islands. At the time of Indonesia has been the appeal of the "foreign", especially the nations come from China and Arab, which are mostly in that age they are keen on establishing relations of economic, social, cultural, and religious; in the view of the author may be just at the time of this throughout our history up to now, the "foreign" to establish good relations and mutually beneficial to both parties.

Entering the colonial era; the "foreigners" already has another agenda besides establishing peaceful relations, the "foreigners" begin to master not only the good way or the bad way so that there colonization against this nation by the Portuguese, Spanish, Dutch and Japanese became dark days in the history Indonesian nation. In 1945 the end of Indonesia can be slightly raised his head by proclaiming independence, only such independence for the "foreign" becomes a kind of "surprise" that is not taken into account before, let us never forget that before the independence of Indonesia precisely in 1942 in Vienna there was an agreement created by the Allies; "Countries allies agreed to seize the territories controlled by Japan to be returned to the owner colonies respectively when the Japanese were expelled from the territory of occupation", hereinafter known as the Treaty of Vienna in 1942, and psychologically still the basis for the "foreign" (allies) have an interest in Indonesia.

So this is where a series of interventions "foreign" becomes a kind of something that will always be inherent in the course of the Indonesian nation, even though we are free some big events always involve the "foreign" in it such as:

Initially Indonesia is actively involved in the meeting of Non-Aligned (Asian-African Conference, Bandung, 1955) but the magnetic block group is very large and in the 1960s established the proximity of Indonesia with the socialist camp / left (Soviet) makes the emergence of friction at home and abroad , continues the outbreak of conflict in 1965 with events G30SPKI, then evolved into political turmoil, the President must lose his post; not separated well from the interference of the capitalist camp / Right (United States).

In 1998, that linger in the memories of most of the nation of Indonesia, a movement that led President Soeharto resigned from his post, according to some circles and also the author believes besides due to the vulnerability of the Indonesian economy at the time this incident also allegedly driven by the hands " foreign "by reason impressed dramatic one because President Suharto at that time indicated began to get closer back to the camp of socialist / left (Russia) to cancel the purchase of fighter aircraft from the United States and then choose the ordering aircraft from Russia (1996-1997).

The referendum and the loss of East Timor from Indonesia during the leadership of President Habibie, directly or indirectly, the "foreign" play an active role to those events.

Gus Dur closeness with Israel, seemed to be lighter above the splash of gasoline; other than for medical reasons, the desire to establish relations with Israel to grip many groups, so that Gus Dur eventually also have to undergo impeachment politically.

During the reign of President Megawati, established cooperation with the parties "foreign" through the sale of some of the companies related to financial difficulties the State, which should be underlined is precisely the faucet cooperation Indonesia was opened wide to the socialist camp / left (China), one of cooperation really surprised at that until now was Tangguh LNG gas sales contract; it must be recognized that the indication of closeness with China has to grip the United States, and very likely defeat Megawati in Election 2004 was triggered because of the fears of the camp of capitalist / Right (United States) if Megawati became President of Indonesia will increase the influence of the left (China) in Indonesia, while influence during this planted by the right (United States) will fade.

During the reign of the President, it can be said is a period the honeymoon between Indonesia and the stronghold of the capitalist / right, examples of proximity can be seen when Indonesia is willing to negotiate with GAM, contracts SDA are more inclined to the camp of capitalist / right, The Fox Supported strength "foreign" political journey escorting SBY, foreign lobbying bilaterally Indonesia more intensively with the capitalist camp / right; and an indication of the influence and other proximity readers who may be informed. Next year 2014, Indonesia will conduct the big event that is pileg and PILPRES, from the illustration above, the writer thought, the reader is smart enough to see what actually happens later in the democratic party that we're in it. If you think next year is an activity for the benefit of a group of political parties in Indonesia alone, you could be a big mistake because they do not see the benefit of a "foreign" play.

Right vs. Left

News about the United States is in a state of 'Shut Down' has shaken the international community; at the same time in all aspects of China's growth has also attracted the attention of the international community. Both of these conditions have made the shift of hegemony, one of them in the Asia-Pacific, the world was looking for a new balance point.

China started to show its existence for 1 (one) the last decade and will continue to increase in the coming decades, especially in the area of ​​the South China Sea territorial claims by China by 9 dotted line border ancient incorporate almost all regions of the South China Sea up to Natuna waters is not a discourse, it is the great potential towards the conflict between the State enormous, Indonesia with its strategic position is almost certain to be drawn into a regional conflict.

China's military maneuvers have started to show towards bigger and wider conflict as some sequence of the following events:

• 2009: The nuclear-powered submarine Navy Chinese arrived in a parade in the waters Qintao, China, 23 April 2009. Almost all the Asian countries that have coastlines strengthen their submarine fleet amid a heated territorial dispute, one of the China Sea Selatan.http://hankam.kompasiana.com/2012/04/08/sengketa-laut- china-selatan-perlombaan-di-lautan-453430.html

• 2010: the beginning of the month July 2010 the Chinese Navy held a rehearsal landing near Natuna Island using landing craft class Yuyi.http:// hankam.kompasiana.com/2010/07/29/antisipasi- terhadap-klaim-china-atas-kepulauan-natuna-209631.html

• 2011: The dispute between the Philippines and China over conflicting claims to the Spratly Islands increased in 2011, a spokesman for the Philippine government started calling the whole area of ​​the sea as the West Philippine Sea. In the Services Administration Atmospheric, Geophysical, and astronomical Philippines (PAGASA) insisted that the region will always be known as the Philippine Sea.

• 2012: China's show of force, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao describes the deployment of the aircraft carrier with a length of 300 meters, showed 'great courage and strength ". The sailing ship is taking place amid China tensions with Japan and the Philippines as well as a number of other countries related to the territorial conflict in kawasan.http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/indonesian/2012-09-26/china-pamer-kekuatan-hadapi- ketegangan-di-kawasan/1020916

• 2013: A US destroyer will join the Philippine Navy ship, to the war games began on Thursday (27/06/2013) near the area claimed by China in the South China Sea. Maneuvers, increase tensions with China about territorial claims. Http://international.sindonews.com/r...n-dengan-china

Anger over the Philippines regarding the shooting of Taiwan fishermen last week continues. Today Taiwan staged war games near the maritime border of the Philippines. [url]http://dunia.news.viva.co.id/news/ read/413297-marah-dengan-filipina–taiwan-gelar- latihan-perang[/url]

Tensions have been exacerbated by the US plan that would move the focus from the Middle East to the Asia- Pacific region in 2020 by putting 60% of the strength of the Navy in the Asia-Pacific region, through the statement of US Secretary of Defense Leon. E. Panetta conveyed that the plan is not linked to an effort to stem the strength of China in the Asia-Pacific region. However, such a move at least make the Indonesian Government helm, with Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa said kekhawatirkan and confirmed that Indonesia is in a position that is not good to choose between two (2) strength; United States and China. http://www.tempo.co/read/news/2012/0...a-Pasifik-2020 The condition of the United States who are tangled; be a kind of anti-climax of the central role of the United States in the international arena, the growth rate of China which has not been seen to be stopped; sooner or later it will begin to compensate even very likely pass through the power and influence of the US and it is highly recognized by China and other parties, both opposing and aligned. Of war force posture, based on the rankings released by the Global Fire Power 2013, the United States still ranked first with index 0.2475 while China ranked third with index 0.3351. By utilizing the current momentum, the Chinese will start chasing for coupled in parallel with the United States, looks at the value of military spending, China entrenched shadowing the US in the second; the value of China's military spending will continue to grow and the United States will actually shrink or stagnate if increased, its value will not be significant:

15 Countries with the largest military spending (in billion $ USD):

1. United States (682)

2. China (166)

3. Russia (90.7)

4. England (60.8)

5. Japan (59.3)

6. France (58.9)

7. Saudi Arabia (56.7)

8. India (46.1)

9. Germany (45,8)

10. Italy (34.0)

11. Brazil (33.1)

12. South Korea (31.7)

13. Australia (26.2)

14. Canada (22.5)

15. Turkey (18.2)

...... Indonesia (8.3)

With the condition of the world as it is today, the author believes a period of 6 years (2014-2020) is enough for China's pursuit of the US position at least to counterbalance the power and influence in the Asia-Pacific region. This obviously makes the United States in a position to be aware of; and also the States in the region, especially to the dispute directly with China began strategizing a war.

Indonesia is ranked in the position of strength of 15, you should not be complacent because when viewed from the Indonesian military spending is only 8 Billion USD is insignificant; China's military expenditure 1/20, 1/85 the United States military spending even if Indonesia boost military spending of 2 (two) fold to $ 16 billion USD position is still under Turkish military expenditure at No. 15, and it should be realized even if the target Minimum Essential Force (MEF) will be achieved by 2019 as submitted by the Indonesian Defense Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro, the condition is still quite alarming given the potential threats faced by big and real will within the near future.

Future Indonesia

Speaking of actors in the competitive landscape of the world, there are four (4) main actor; in addition to camp right and left camps are camps that I put together called stronghold front and rear stronghold. Naming the next camp because of characteristics tend to be blatantly in front opposed to all other camps representing most of the Arab nation and naming the rear stronghold because of the characteristics tend to be behind the scenes represent the majority of the Jews; naming the terms right, left, front, rear so that the elements of SARA is missing and this discussion is not widened to debate beliefs and should be stressed also that the author did not explore the issue of ideology and religion, but the focus of this paper is the question of influence and control, especially on aspects political, economic, and defense and security.

Actors in the world is a reflection of the conditions in Indonesia next author named group, the establishment of Indonesia is also a consolidation of three (3) groups close / influenced strongholds; right, left and front while camp 1 (one / rear) blacklisted Indonesia since independence until now because it is contrary to the basic principles adopted by Indonesia related to the concept of independence (Israel vs Palestine), even if the camp behind never will be accommodated into Indonesia is currently Indonesia led by President Abdurrahman but before they happen, they are directly in the "cut" by the left and back to front so that the habitat behind the scenes; Three (3) groups, initially embraced together by the founding fathers of Indonesia; Sukarno, friction occurs over time and cause divisions starting from the DI / TII and peak G30SPKI eventually won the right group + 1 (one / rear).

What is happening today is quite obvious that the ongoing political battle of three (3) + 1 (one / rear), only the front group is always used as a shield, especially by right-+ 1 (one / back); take the example of Afghanistan during the occupation by the Soviet Union, the Taliban is supported in full by the United States to the Soviet Union can be driven out of Afghanistan, but after the Soviet Union resigned rather than independence gained even now in Afghanistan, the United States is an enemy of the Taliban.

Events that are similar to Afghanistan can be seen in Indonesia in scale story with smaller event that has just shown, when the Interior Minister catapult discourse on FPI and Regional Head which developed into a confrontation between the left and front, if only the left and the front open your eyes may not need a confrontation; because they were used to face each other so that the right + 1 (one / rear) does not need to dirty their hands to fight openly.

By looking at the dynamics; should the left and the front can be united on the basis of common enemy (right) + 1 (one / back) rather than simply blasted each other, such a strategy is a strategy fashioned supposed left and front has started to behave intelligently deal with it instead of just repeating dark history; in the pre-colonial era, Nusantara kingdoms coexisted peacefully with China and Arab until marred by provocations by occupiers (colonial).

From the explanation of brief above, everything is quite bright about the current conditions and the future of Indonesia, but there is one further issue that the author wants to convey and is surprising is what is on the agenda of the parties "foreign" especially right + 1 (one / rear) on the future of Indonesia, one of which was a recommendation issued by the RAND Corporation to the Pentagon (USA) that Indonesia should be divided 8 regions.

Target the right is predictable; status QUO, as a side effect and control or when the influence and control can not be maintained then there should be no other groups that influence and / or control in Indonesia (with us or against us), so the agenda splitting of Indonesia or attacking Indonesian is a threat that is not can be relishing. Where is the left position and the future in relation to Indonesia or less the same which is to influence and control, the author will borrow the thought of Hans Morgenthau: that men and women have the "will to power". This can be seen in the world of politics, especially international politics; "Politics is the struggle for power over people, and whatever the final destination, the power is the most important objectives and ways of obtaining, maintaining and demonstrating power determines political action techniques". What about the people of Indonesia? Not many are thinking about the complexity of interests, because national issues alone is very complicated, especially the problem of systematic corruption to be categorized as a latent threat; with what is emerging in the community; author captures one (1) the basic essentials that people are fed up, making a very low level of trust towards implementing Government and the State so that people are actively engaged dreaming of change, towards the better; This phenomenon will be costly for the right group + 1 (one / back), their presence has been very disappointing and will soon be abandoned; influence and control they will start to erode drastically on the other hand an opportunity to be fought to be won by the left, while the front group in this situation have not been able to prove their existence politically. wah not enough follow-up ad disni gan >>> http://www.theglobal-review.com/cont...2#.UskM47QcSv4